As we enter the final months of 2020 and continue to work through the challenges this year has brought, some people wonder what impact continued economic uncertainty could have on home prices. Buyers wonder if they should wait for ” the crash” sellers wonder if this is a good time to sell, or should they wait until the spring… Let’s take a look at what some experts are saying.

Looking at the big picture, the rules of supply and demand will give us the clearest idea of what is to come.

We all know that real estate is local. The nuances of adjacent neighborhoods, styles of housing in price ranges can have a big impact on particular submarkets.  I spend a lot of time thinking about that and comparing different areas looking for those shades of distinction. It’s also important to keep an eye on what’s going on at the macro level too. I subscribe to a couple of publications that provide data on a national level about what’s happening in the real estate market so I thought I’d share a few things with you today.

This graph is provided by the company that supplies the software that many agents around the country use for making showing appointments. It’s the one that we use here locally as well.

It doesn’t absolutely track every single showing in every single market but it has enough market share that it provides us a good baseline. You can see the dramatic drop when the shut down started happening around the country and then as things loosened up, activity has come back.

 That’s certainly been true in our area. There are still restrictions about open houses and overlapping showings are not allowed. The past couple of weekends, when I have taken buyers out, the Showingtime calendar has been nearly full for many newly listed properties on both Saturdays and Sundays.

This chart shows both the seasonal ebb and flow that is part of the normal real estate cycle year-to-year, and the absolute numerical difference in total number of listings over the past 3 years. 2020 started off the year at the lowest point in the past 3 years and was either flat or headed in a downward direction steadily ever since. So inventory is tight, very tight.

Just to give you a little local perspective here is the trend line for active inventory in the DC metro area for the past 3 years you can see that the peaks of inventory got lower and lower each year. There’s very little out there for buyers right now.

That dovetails into the next slide which shows the affordability trend over the past few years for housing. Even though prices have moved up steadily in many markets, the substantial drop in interest rates have caused the actual monthly housing expenses as a percentage of household income to historic low points right now. This affordability factor has driven very strong demand at the same time that supply has been diminished. We all know what that means.

One more slide and I’ll stop, I promise 🙂

Many people look at what’s happening in the housing market today and the economy in general and they ask the question about how this will compare with the Great Recession. There are a lot of big differences between the two. I could write pages on that subject alone but today I’ll focus on one thing, the equity position of many homeowners. the last run up in prices in the early 2000s was largely fueled by lax lending standards and there were many homeowners who had little or no equity in their properties when the market went south. This slide shows the number of people who are in forbearance and what their Equity positions are. as you can see the large majority, 77% of them, have 20% equity or more. This is a very different position then many of the homeowners were in 2008 and 2009. Most homeowners today could still sell their homes at present prices and walk away with money.

Of course no one can predict the future, well maybe she can 🙂 We’ll all have to wait and see how things play out. But I think there’s some reassurance to be had in this information. If you’ve got any questions, or  would like to see some more geeky slides, please feel free to reach out!

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

These 2020 Real Estate Projections May Surprise You

If you’ve wondered what’s the difference between a split level and a split foyer, then you’ve come to the right place, ‘cause that’s what we’re talking about today and we’re starting right now. 

  My name is Harry Moore and I’m a 25-year veteran real estate agent in the Washington DC Metro Area. If you’d like to see my YouTube video on this, click the image below. If you are interested in seeing the content of these blog posts in video format, please subscribe to my channel!

Right now, I’ll take on another pair of real estate terms that seem to regularly confuse people, split level vs. split foyer houses. Both designs were mostly built in the mid 1950’s through the late 1960’s. They have different names in other parts of the country. In some areas split levels are called “ tri-levels” and Split Foyers are called Raised Ranchers.

In a split level house you usually have two sections of the house , one rectangular and one square. They normally have 3-4 levels, but you’ll sometimes see 5 and I’ve even seen 6 level splits a few times. You’ll generally walk in on the main level, with the living rm Dining room and kitchen on that level, then immediately to one side are two short sets of stairs, one that goes up to the bedrooms and one that goes down to the family room, other bedrooms and utility space. Often there is another level down which is a full below grade basement.

A split foyer is usually a 2 level rectangularly shaped house with the entry door and small foyer between the two levels of living space. So immediately when you walk in you’ll either go up to the living/dining/ kitchen and most of the bedrooms or down to family room, other bedrooms and utility space.

If you’re interested in other mid century style houses (like bilevels or maybe ramblers) reach out, my contact information is below, and I’ll set up a custom search for you.

My name is Harry Moore and I want to say thank you for taking the time to read this post. If you know someone, maybe a friend or neighbor, who might benefit from this information, please share this link with them. Make it a great day!

You’re wondering what’s happening with Kensington Maryland Real Estate these days, you’ve come to the right place, ‘cause that’s what we’re talking about today. My name is Harry Moore and I’m a full time veteran real estate agent in the Washington DC Metro Area. If you’d like to see this in video format please click the image below!

I’ve been out previewing a few houses on my way to the office, including this new listing at 11410 Soward Drive in Kensington. It’s a fixer upper in Kensington Knolls that backs to woods so the view out the back is really nice. If you’re interested in seeing the interior pictures, click on the image below and check it out, and if you’d like to arrange a showing, my contact information is below.

One of the questions that I get all of the time is “ hows the market”? If you’re curious about what’s going on with Kensington Maryland home sales, then stick around for the next few minutes for an up to the minute snapshot of the Kensington Maryland Real Estate Market. So let’s get going! 

First we’ll look at the current numbers for July and the year to date numbers

New listings

This year- 16

Last year-34

New listings are down 47%

Total Active listings

This year-28

Last year-46

Total active listings are down 40%

Under contract

This year-18

Last year-27

Under contract properties are down 33%If you are getting your updates from Zillow, Trulia, Realtor.com or any of the other portal sites then many of the listings you are seeing may not even be available. 

If you want up to the minute data, then contact your agent and have them set up an update for you that’s coming directly from the Multiple Listing Service, it’s the primary source that feeds all of the portal sites, why not get it direct?

Another benefit of a direct MLS search, is that you can see coming soon listings, so if you want to know about listings when they are being “pre-marketed” on the MLS then you’ll need to have your agent set that up for you.

Now let’s take a quick look at the Year To Date numbers 

Number of sold properties

This year-222

Last year-208

+6.7%

Average Sales Price

This year-642,139

Last year-679,975

-5%

 Average Days on Market

This year-51

Last year-81

-38%

If you’ve got a house on the market and it’s not selling, maybe it’s been on the market for longer than 51days and you’d like to figure out how to get your house sold, then check out my video about the 4 things you need to do to get your house that’s already on the market sold.

There’s another number that I like to watch, the properties that failed to sell. In August, 12 properties failed to sell. Although some of those probably came back on the market, it reminds us that, even in a strong seller’s market, not every house sells.

2 other numbers that I keep an eye on are the absorption rate and the list to sell ratio.

What’s absorption rate? -Take the average number of sales over the past 12 months and divide that into the active properties, that tells you how long it’d take for all of the houses in your market to sell if nothing else came on the market. By using a 12 month average that takes seasonal market cycles into account .

If you know the number of months of inventory that helps to determine what sort of market you are in. 

0-4 months is a sellers market

4-6 is a transitional market

6+ is a buyers market

Kensington had  1.12 months of inventory at the end of August, that’s down from 1.29 months at the end of July. Part of that is seasonal, August is the end of the spring and summer season, and lots of people are at the beach, or wherever they go to get away.

How much the average home sells for as a percentage of the asking price. This is another good indicator of what sort of market you are in. Higher list to sell ratio means a sellers market. A lower ratio points to a buyers market. The list to sell ratio for August was 97.9%.

What does this all mean??

The big news is that the shelves are pretty bare. Inventory continues to sink, 1.12 months of inventory is the lowest number since March of 2018. Demand has remained strong, with average days on market dropping year over year. The gap in average sales price Year over Year from 2018 has narrowed substantially. Prices were actually down a bit over July, but still are well above the numbers last year. So, it’s a good time to sell. If you know anyone who’s thinking about selling, I’d appreciate the opportunity to speak with them about how I can help them to capitalize on this strong seller’s market.

This is all big picture data, which is good to have, but real estate is very local, and you can see big variations in the market based on price range and specific location. If you’re thinking about getting into the market, either as a buyer or a seller and would like a detailed neighborhood-specific analysis my contact information is below, just reach out and I’ll get right back to you.

 If you know someone, maybe a friend or neighbor, who might benefit from this information, please share this article with them.  Make it a great day!

Contact infomation:

Cell Phone: (202)-363-4663

Email:harry@harrymoore.com

YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqLpjepsghUR9xwg5cVD4hQ

My name is Harry Moore and I’m a realtor in the Washington DC Metro Area. If you’ve got a house on the market and it’s not selling, maybe it’s been on the market for a while and you’re starting to get nervous, then it’s time for you to take a look at what needs to be done to get your house sold.

If you’d like to see this in video format, please click the image below!

 There are four things that sell homes- location, condition, presentation and price. Let’s go through each of them and examine how they affect the ability to sell your house.

Location- Not much to do here, unless you’re going to pick the house up and move it, but make sure that when you’re looking at the competition and what’s going on in the market that you’re focused on properties in comparable locations. 

Condition- You really need to take a good hard look at how your house will look to someone who’s never seen it before. Take off your seller glasses and put on your buyer glasses. 

It’s human nature to get used to the “quirks” of your house when you see them every day, but buyers have fresh eyes, and they’ll react very differently. 

Once you’ve taken a survey of the condition of the house with your buyer’s eyes, then put together a list of things that need to be addressed. Think about your budget and how much time you have to get these things done.

Now, take a look at the competition.

Take a look at other properties that are on the market right now that buyers are looking at and comparing to yours, and see how your house stacks up.

Remember those seller glasses, take ‘em off!!

 You can view a lot of your competition online, but it’s even better if you contact your agent and go look at some of them in person.

Once you’ve put together your list of condition items and done a survey of the competition, then you can decide what needs to be done to make sure your house is putting it’s best foot forward.

Have a frank conversation with your agent about the pros and cons of the different alternatives and put together a plan that makes sense for you.

Next, take a look at the presentation of your property. Does your listing have professional photographs? Has the property been staged to show it’s best? Is there a 3D and or video tour available? 

I am a big fan of Matterport 3D tours. I think they are a great way for people to get a really good sense of your house and how everything fits together. You can start with the “dollhouse” view so that you know where everything fits together, and then zoom in to the individual rooms and walk around. 

Next, what sort of social media marketing campaign is being used? How does your listing appear on the portal sites? Is it the same as what’s showing up on the MLS? Sometimes it isn’t and that may need to be fixed.

Once you’ve addressed condition and presentation and made adjustments, then take a good hard look at the price. 

 It’s not a conversation that anyone looks forward to, but it’s an important one to have. The market moves quickly, and you don’t want to be left behind.

Have your agent gather the current market data, and set up a time to review it with ‘em. Think about your goals, why you are selling your home, and focus on what needs to be done to move you towards that.

So now you’ve learned the 4 things that you need to review address if your house isn’t selling.

My name is Harry Moore and I want to say thank you for taking the time to read this post.

If you know someone, maybe a friend or neighbor, who might benefit from this information, please share this article with them. Make it a great day!